Explore your plan
Success vs spending, by tax regime
Safe spend (90%) vs stock allocation
When the money runs out, vs your odds of still being here
How to read this. The calculator runs your whole plan hundreds of
times, once for every possible starting point in history (in Monte Carlo mode, hundreds of
reshuffled versions instead), and averages what happened. Amounts are in today's money while the
inflation toggle is on.
The table. Money lasts is how often the money survived to
the end. Median left and tax paid are the middle outcome, with the range beneath
covering the middle half of runs. Yearly drag is that tax written as an equivalent yearly
fee; it shifts with your plan because the taxes are progressive. Switch the Compare dropdown
to max safe spending to see the most each tax model would let you spend while still lasting
90% of the time, then click a row to use that amount.
The chart. Each coloured band is the chance, at a given age, that
your pot is worth 0–1×, 1–2×, 2–5×, or 5×+ what you started with (in today's money). The grey band is
the chance you're no longer alive. The chart below it draws every individual run as a faint line.
Educational model, not financial or tax advice. Market returns: Jordà-Schularick-Taylor
Macrohistory (1870–2020), extended to 2025 with FRED / MSCI / ECB / Eurostat / SNB data; mortality:
Eurostat; Box 3: proposed 2028 "Wet werkelijk rendement". See the method page for sources.